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The 100 Year N. Gas Myth

SeekingAlpha.com -- by Eamon Keane

It's difficult to read an article on natural gas without the mention of the US' 100 years of natural gas supply. It forms the basis of suggestions for a scaling up of the natural gas intensity of transport and power generation. I'll look at the evidence here.

Excerpts

The Potential Gas Committee (PGC) arrived at similar figures. The 100 year figure originates from their latest report. The PGC figures say nothing about when and at what cost natural gas resources will be produced.

"I think it might not be a bad idea to examine the faith-based assumption that the US has a virtually unlimited supply of natural gas from shale formations that can be extracted at a low price for the indefinite future."

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Submitted Mar 13, 2010 By: UncleCurt

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kelsielee Champion Author Atlanta Posts:3,389 Points:672,025 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Mar 15, 2010 2:20:32 PM Ignore kelsielee Report Abuse This article does not sound particularly optimistic that supplies are actually what they have been "touted" to be.
jedintheshed Champion Author Colorado Springs Posts:1,587 Points:477,640 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Mar 15, 2010 8:05:47 AM Ignore jedintheshed Report Abuse Time will tell
Bonanza Champion Author Boston Posts:9,294 Points:2,086,055 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: Mar 15, 2010 6:09:09 AM Ignore Bonanza Report Abuse I've always thought natural gas was under utilized in this country
ronsimonil All-Star Author Texas Posts:734 Points:157,975 Joined:Mar 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 11:34:30 AM Ignore ronsimonil Report Abuse Every little bit helps.
zornave Champion Author Louisville Posts:13,890 Points:2,204,700 Joined:Jul 2001	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 6:01:33 AM Ignore zornave Report Abuse I don't perceive it as a major concern. NG is only one of many energy sources. And who knows what developments in the next 100 years will either better harness existing energy sources or economically harness other currently undiscovered energy sources.
jimshell Champion Author Pennsylvania Posts:2,102 Points:591,945 Joined:Sep 2004	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:59:51 AM Ignore jimshell Report Abuse Time will tell.
turbodog Champion Author Mississippi Posts:4,392 Points:896,515 Joined:Feb 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:57:24 AM Ignore turbodog Report Abuse I suspect the estimate is conservative. New discoveries all the time.
twobroke61 Champion Author Michigan Posts:6,050 Points:1,130,265 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:55:05 AM Ignore twobroke61 Report Abuse we need too use our own resources here in this country and quit supporting foreign countries before they take us over completely they already have most of our jobs
DrivingFool2 Champion Author Appleton Posts:6,177 Points:1,144,440 Joined:Apr 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:49:29 AM Ignore DrivingFool2 Report Abuse Supplies have hardly been tapped.
pgerassi Champion Author Milwaukee Posts:8,516 Points:1,665,900 Joined:Apr 2007	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:45:02 AM Ignore pgerassi Report Abuse I doubt we truly have a 100 yr supply. Demand tends to exponentially grow.
Hunter724 Champion Author New Hampshire Posts:5,757 Points:1,178,240 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:39:02 AM Ignore Hunter724 Report Abuse Sounds Great........
humblepie Champion Author Toledo Posts:13,635 Points:1,904,470 Joined:Mar 2006	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:26:51 AM Ignore humblepie Report Abuse almost as cheap as coal, and much cheaper then pie in the sky "alternative" ideas, al gore and his sky is falling speaches have made him and his cronies very rich, but like his internet invention, leave much to be proven.................
fratt Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:7,494 Points:2,179,380 Joined:Jul 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:26:30 AM Ignore fratt Report Abuse Natural gas is only a short term solution.
Amplion Champion Author Oregon Posts:4,237 Points:1,398,310 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:24:03 AM Ignore Amplion Report Abuse We had MANUFACTURED GAS before we had natural gas. I remember when we switched to natural gas. We could always switch back !!!! Or just use propane.
bobdec Champion Author Florida Posts:6,716 Points:1,324,615 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:19:08 AM Ignore bobdec Report Abuse Good short term solution until better tchnology is developed
72_Monte Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:5,428 Points:1,531,955 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:10:42 AM Ignore 72_Monte Report Abuse Pretty graphs. * geez * Suffice it to say, we have lots of NG. But we should continue looking beyond any fossil fuel for better resources.
bar1035 Champion Author Charlotte Posts:5,820 Points:833,070 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 5:01:12 AM Ignore bar1035 Report Abuse A large supply at current usage rates. The future usage rates..it depends.
jimraehl Champion Author Utah Posts:4,755 Points:1,175,435 Joined:Sep 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 4:49:20 AM Ignore jimraehl Report Abuse The Earth makes natural gas. The supply is unlimited.
gass12 Champion Author Omaha Posts:6,170 Points:1,850,265 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 4:38:34 AM Ignore gass12 Report Abuse Natural gas is the only way to go.
jackson661 Champion Author Columbus Posts:2,783 Points:1,047,190 Joined:May 2006	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 4:38:03 AM Ignore jackson661 Report Abuse US has a virtually unlimited supply of natural gas..can you be serious.
cheapertvs Champion Author Richmond Posts:7,846 Points:2,274,820 Joined:Jan 2004	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 4:32:55 AM Ignore cheapertvs Report Abuse With new extraction technologies on the verge, natural gas will become even more plentiful in North America. We will see the paradigm shift to natural gas as our primary fuel and away from oil in the near future.
TIGERPAW46 Champion Author Florida Posts:5,158 Points:965,885 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 4:15:28 AM Ignore TIGERPAW46 Report Abuse This is contrary to what the US dept. Of energy & the experts that study the potential oil shale and otherwise in the US say.
jcurley Champion Author California Posts:5,638 Points:1,321,570 Joined:Dec 2007	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 4:01:15 AM Ignore jcurley Report Abuse If natural gas prices remain low, then no one is going to drill for more. As soon gas prices go up, then we'll start to see more drilling, etc. Same story as drilling for oil. Oil companies are not drilling as much, because we don't know where prices are headed. Since we are in a supposed, "free" market (except that the market is dominated by a small number of players), they want to keep oil prices high, so they complain about not being able to drill around here. When in fact, they have all kinds of leases. It's just like poker, we are being bluffed.
EXTREMESNOW Champion Author Medford Posts:7,052 Points:1,453,565 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:59:27 AM Ignore EXTREMESNOW Report Abuse 100 year supply is not an unlimited, it is only 100 years.
Lizzylou Champion Author Stockton Posts:7,030 Points:2,001,125 Joined:Oct 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:57:26 AM Ignore Lizzylou Report Abuse ??? Not really understanding where this article is going???
BillA Champion Author Portland Posts:11,171 Points:1,541,430 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:55:10 AM Ignore BillA Report Abuse Well since our world is now predicted will somehow end in 2012 by the Asteks (having missed Y2K) then 100 years is much more than we need. AMERICAN PREDICTORS LOVE A GOOD SCARE. [Edited by: BillA at 3/14/2010 3:57:39 AM EST]
RENEGADEGAS Champion Author Missouri Posts:12,054 Points:1,127,180 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:49:18 AM Ignore RENEGADEGAS Report Abuse BobD2009...You are right. A lot more than they are decieving people into believing. This whole story is laughable at best.
pdcarver Champion Author San Diego Posts:1,289 Points:252,370 Joined:Sep 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:49:05 AM Ignore pdcarver Report Abuse OK, now pass out the sandwiches.
BobD2009 Champion Author Long Island Posts:4,582 Points:774,835 Joined:Apr 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:39:03 AM Ignore BobD2009 Report Abuse Right now there is a large stockpile of natural gas.
BM4225 Champion Author Atlanta Posts:7,921 Points:1,667,460 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:36:20 AM Ignore BM4225 Report Abuse An interesting read, it was never said how easy, or the cost of getting the 100 years gas would be. When oil was first produced, it was just flowing with very little effort, today it is very difficult, and expensive, the same will hold true for gas. Wind, and solar please.
speedys Champion Author Utah Posts:4,666 Points:2,092,395 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:33:38 AM Ignore speedys Report Abuse It is like rolling the dice.
eddmac Champion Author Washington Posts:5,526 Points:1,234,975 Joined:May 2006	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:32:40 AM Ignore eddmac Report Abuse In the seceam of thines 100 years is tomorrow
findcheap Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:7,236 Points:1,542,995 Joined:Apr 2007	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:32:38 AM Ignore findcheap Report Abuse problem is transporting the gas, not extracting it
GMVAN Champion Author Calgary Posts:4,395 Points:932,605 Joined:Apr 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:28:07 AM Ignore GMVAN Report Abuse Who knows how long it will last.
Retowered Champion Author Colorado Posts:6,208 Points:2,218,535 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:23:48 AM Ignore Retowered Report Abuse Maybe natural gas will be the way to go.
zdn Champion Author New Jersey Posts:1,722 Points:730,265 Joined:Sep 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:21:23 AM Ignore zdn Report Abuse myth
CiVX Champion Author Oakland Posts:5,713 Points:1,013,800 Joined:Feb 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:14:23 AM Ignore CiVX Report Abuse It sells stocks!
EcoVore Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:3,533 Points:727,150 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:11:18 AM Ignore EcoVore Report Abuse A mythic source debunking a myth? Two wrongs don't make a right.
14of45SSR Champion Author Saskatchewan Posts:2,370 Points:829,040 Joined:Dec 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:11:14 AM Ignore 14of45SSR Report Abuse So then make vehicles run on Natural Gas down in the southern states! Where the cold is less likely to cause an ignition problem like up in the northern states or in Canada!
52MPG Champion Author Dayton Posts:4,909 Points:1,277,505 Joined:Apr 2006	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:08:15 AM Ignore 52MPG Report Abuse Technology may replace the need for natural gas.
ItsMorph Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:30,088 Points:2,721,175 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:06:35 AM Ignore ItsMorph Report Abuse Grow some beans, make them into a burrito. The natural gas potential is beyond imagination.
Gary65 Champion Author Toronto Posts:1,501 Points:511,655 Joined:Jan 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:05:53 AM Ignore Gary65 Report Abuse It's all guess work and speculation.
RENEGADEGAS Champion Author Missouri Posts:12,054 Points:1,127,180 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:03:53 AM Ignore RENEGADEGAS Report Abuse This whole story is a farce. We have much more than 100 years worth of natural gas in Missouri alone. Please. Seeing who the story was written by, it stands to reason why its full of crap. More greenie weenies trying to make people believe something that simply isnt true by putting it in print. I think people have learned not to trust anyone in the green movement after the Gore debunking.
RichardoB Champion Author Fayetteville Posts:5,625 Points:1,537,035 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 3:01:09 AM Ignore RichardoB Report Abuse I've always thought natural gas was under utilized in this country.
pbc2001 Champion Author Dallas Posts:2,316 Points:417,405 Joined:Feb 2009	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 1:57:39 AM Ignore pbc2001 Report Abuse We shall see what the future holds.
10k Champion Author North Carolina Posts:16,595 Points:1,787,870 Joined:May 2006	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 1:48:19 AM Ignore 10k Report Abuse if al gore has anything to gain by natural gas, then i say bury it, and bury it deep..
JCS319 Champion Author Tacoma Posts:14,962 Points:2,075,370 Joined:Dec 2005	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 1:43:51 AM Ignore JCS319 Report Abuse another holy grail?
TPlayer All-Star Author Fort Wayne Posts:578 Points:149,375 Joined:Jan 2010	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 1:42:14 AM Ignore TPlayer Report Abuse I wouldn't count on anything... especially from those that have the most to gain... example, Al Gore and Gorebal Warming...
srchr Champion Author San Jose Posts:4,874 Points:1,161,750 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 1:39:17 AM Ignore srchr Report Abuse nat gas in cars would reduce reliance on foreign oil, especially since the obama administration issued an executive order late friday banning offshore drilling that was scheduled to start this july until 2012.
nehemiah Champion Author Portland Posts:3,041 Points:551,690 Joined:Jul 2007	Message Posted: Mar 14, 2010 1:35:57 AM Ignore nehemiah Report Abuse whatever